Groundwater travel time uncertainty analysis using sensitivity derivatives

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Authors:LaVenue, A. Marsh; Andrews, Robert W.; Rama Rao, Banda S.
Author Affiliations:Primary:
Intera Technol., Austin, TX, United States
Volume Title:Water Resources Research
Source:Water Resources Research, 25(7), p.1551-1566. Publisher: American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, United States. ISSN: 0043-1397
Publication Date:1989
Note:In English. 38 refs.; illus. incl. charts, tables
Summary:Ground-water traveltime is a key performance measure used in the performance assessment of a potential site for the storage of high-level radioactive waste. Two approaches commonly used to quantify the uncertainty in a given prediction of a performance measure are the first-order second-moment (FOSM) approach and the stochastic approach. The FOSM approach predicts the mean and variance of the performance measure based on the mean and variance of the system parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity) and the sensitivity of the performance measure with respect to the system parameters. The sensitivity of the performance measure is directly determined by calculating its first derivative with respect to selected system parameters. The uncertainty of the performance measure is then calculated by multiplying the performance measure sensitivity to the uncertainty of the system parameters. The FOSM approach has been employed to determine the uncertainty of the predicted ground-water traveltime performance measure at the proposed high-level waste repository site that had been undergoing detailed investigation in Deaf Smith County, Texas.—Modified journal abstract.
Subjects:Engineering geology; Ground water; High-level waste; Hydrodynamics; Movement; Pollution; Radioactive waste; Sensitivity analysis; Transport; Traveltime; Underground storage; Waste disposal; Deaf Smith County Texas; Texas; United States; Northern Texas
Coordinates:N344500 N352000 W1021000 W1030000
Record ID:1989063612
Copyright Information:GeoRef, Copyright 2018 American Geosciences Institute.
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